Retail trade: sales down by 2 billion
2015 will go down as the year with the biggest decline in sales in recent retail history in Switzerland. According to calculations by BAK Basel, retailers recorded over CHF 2 billion less turnover than in 2014.
The main reasons for the decline were a fall in demand and significant price reductions. The appreciation of the Swiss franc at the start of 2015 had a significant impact on sales trends in the retail sector. The price differences to nearby foreign countries accentuated abruptly with the minimum exchange rate on January 15. This was followed by a further increase in the outflow of purchasing power to neighboring countries. For their part, local retailers responded with further price cuts.
According to BAK Basel, the effects of the minimum price increase will still be evident in the current year. No further significant increases in shopping tourism are to be expected and the fall in prices is also likely to slow somewhat. In the context of economic developments, however, a deterioration in the situation on the labor market and a significant slowdown in income growth are to be expected. As a result, the development of demand in the current year 2016 is likely to be significantly below average compared to the last ten years.
BAK Basel anticipates a further decline in nominal sales for 2016 (-0.4% p.a.). While the price level is likely to be 1.2% lower than in 2015, a small increase of 0.8% is forecast for real sales growth. (ah)
