US election: Trump triumphs
It has become the God-is-with-us. Real estate mogul Donald Trump is moving into the White House as the 45th President of the USA. The man who never missed an opportunity during the election campaign to insult political opponents, rant against illegal immigrants and call the heads of government of friendly nations "crazy", as in the case of German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Politicians on this side of the Atlantic are completely surprised by the 70-year-old's victory. Neither the governments in Berlin nor in Paris have yet made contact with Trump. Which in turn is surprising. After all, the Brexit vote in the UK in June had already shown that in head-to-head political races, the side that most ministers and MPs would rather see as the loser can very well win.
Initial reactions to the US election have been correspondingly mixed. "A lot of question marks", says National Council President Christa Markwalder (FDP) for the Swiss economy. "Trump's election victory is creating a climate of uncertainty that is detrimental to investment decisions." For Germany's Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen, the vote is even a "severe shock". Leading EU politicians fear that populists will now gain further support. "We must not leave the field to the radicals in the world", warns Manfred Weber, leader of the conservative group in Brussels.
Donald Trump's problem - and his advantage
Trump's problem: he has no past on the floor in Washington. He has described his ideas on foreign, domestic, economic and financial policy in mostly crude statements. European media have therefore spoken of the "dirtiest election campaign of all time". However, a quick Google search reveals exactly the same phrase in the headlines of the US elections of 2012, 2008 and 2004, because unlike in Europe, the battle for votes in the land of the former Wild West is traditionally a wild one - although this is regularly forgotten just as quickly after the ballot. Like his predecessors in office, Trump was presidential in his first speech, shaking hands with his political opponents and invoking the unity of the nation.
Trump's advantage: he has no past on the floor in Washington. He has never been a politician, but an entrepreneur. As such, he knows that business flourishes best when there is peace, the economy is growing and incomes are rising. His opponent, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, supported the invasion of Iraq and constantly sought confrontation with Russia. In contrast, Trump wants to scale back military operations and find a balance with Putin. This can only be good for Europe.
"With Trump, a real estate man will rule from 2017"
Another difference: Clinton promised financial institutions to reduce controls in speeches to their top managers. "In contrast, Trump stands for strict regulation of the big banks," soberly analyzes Folker Hellmeyer, chief economist at Bremer Landesbank. America's real estate industry should benefit from this thanks to a solid supply of credit. In general, the concrete gold markets are likely to be among the winners. Despite all the uncertainty, one fact should not be ignored, says Claus Thomas, top manager at LaSalle Investment: "With Trump, a real estate man will govern the most important and powerful state in the world from 2017" - and as such he will hardly do anything to harm his industry. (Richard Haimann)
